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Mike Pence is making little secret of his presidential ambitions. He’s written his book; he’s assembling his team; he’s mastered the artwork of the coy nondenial when anyone asks (in between journeys to Iowa) if he’s working. In early Republican-primary polls, he hovers between 6 and seven p.c—not top-tier numbers, however respectable sufficient. He appears to assume he has at the very least an out of doors shot at successful the Republican nomination.
And but, ask a Republican voter concerning the former vp, and also you’re more likely to hear among the most withering commentary you’ve ever encountered a couple of politician.
In current weeks, I used to be invited to sit down in on a collection of focus teams carried out over Zoom. Organized by the political guide Sarah Longwell, the teams consisted of Republican voters who’d supported Donald Trump in each 2016 and 2020. The members had been everywhere in the nation—suburban Atlanta, rural Illinois, San Diego—and so they different of their present opinions of Trump. In some circumstances, Longwell filtered for voters who must be in Pence’s goal demographic. One group consisted totally of two-time Trump voters who didn’t need him to run once more; one other was made up of conservative evangelicals, who would possibly presumably admire Pence’s roots within the non secular proper.
I’ve been overlaying Pence’s unusual Trump-era arc since 2017, after I first profiled him for The Atlantic. By some accounts, he’s wished to be president since his college-fraternity days. I’ve all the time been skeptical of his probabilities, however now that he lastly appears able to run, I wished to know the attraction of his potential candidacy. My objective was to see if I might discover at the very least one Pence supporter.
As a substitute, these had been among the quotes I jotted down.
“I don’t take care of him … He’s simply middle-of-the-road to me. If there was somebody midway higher, I wouldn’t vote for him.”
“He has alienated each Republican and Democrat … It’s over. It’s retirement time.”
“He’s solely gonna get the vote from his household, and I’m not even certain in the event that they like him.”
“He simply must go away.”
It went on and on like that throughout 4 completely different focus teams. Of the 34 Republicans who participated, I heard solely 4 folks say they’d take into account Pence for president—and two of them instantly began speaking themselves out of it after indicating curiosity.
A few of the causes for Pence’s lack of help had been intuitive. Exhausting-core Trump followers mentioned they’d been alienated by Pence’s refusal to dam the certification of the 2020 electoral votes, because the president was demanding. This break with Trump famously prompted chants of “Hold Mike Pence!” to echo via the U.S. Capitol on January 6.
Though the sentiment expressed within the focus teams wasn’t fairly so violent, the anger was nonetheless current. Throughout one session, three folks—all of whom had reported “very favorable” views of Trump—took turns trashing Pence for what they noticed as his weak point.
“I’m so mad at Pence that I might by no means vote for him,” mentioned one man named Matt. “He can be a horrible president … I simply don’t assume he has the management qualities to be president.” (I agreed to determine the members solely by their first title.)
“That’s precisely it,” a lady named Christine mentioned, nodding eagerly. “He didn’t have the management qualities to do what everybody wished him to do on January 6. He simply doesn’t have that backbone.”
A 3rd participant, Nicholas, chimed in: “He simply selected to associate with all the opposite RINOs and Democrats, to not upset the applecart.”
In the meantime, much less MAGA-inclined Republicans thought Pence was too Trumpy.
“The one factor I favored about him was that he truly did stand as much as Donald Trump,” a lady named Barbara mentioned. “He’s too part of Trump. I don’t assume Trump has an opportunity, and I don’t assume anyone in that interior circle has an opportunity both.”
“I feel he put a stain on himself for any regular Republican when he joined the Trump administration,” mentioned one other participant, Justin. “After which he put a stain on himself with any Trump Republican on January 6. So I don’t assume he has a constituency wherever. I don’t know if anybody would vote for him.”
Longwell instructed me that is how Pence is talked about in each focus group she holds. What to make of that 6 to 7 p.c he will get within the main polls? “I think about there’s a cohort of GOP voters who will not be notably engaged who don’t need Trump once more, and Pence is the one different title they actually know,” she speculated. That, or “they’re all from Indiana,” the state the place Pence served as governor. A second Republican pollster, who requested anonymity to supply his candid view, instructed me, “Seven p.c is a weak displaying for the rapid former VP.”
Devin O’Malley, an adviser to Pence, responded to a request for remark in an electronic mail: “Mike Pence has spent the final two years touring to greater than 30 states, campaigning for dozens of candidates, and listening to potential voters. These interactions have been extremely constructive and inspiring, and we place extra worth in these experiences than of a spotlight group carried out by disgruntled former Republicans like Sarah Longwell and paid for by some shadow group that The Atlantic gained’t disclose.” (Longwell instructed me the prices for the main focus teams are break up between The Bulwark and the Republican Accountability Challenge, two anti-Trump organizations with which she is affiliated.)
What I discovered most fascinating concerning the voters’ digs at Pence was that they had been nearly all the time preceded by passing reward of his private character: He was a “top-of-the-line man,” a “good man,” a “tremendous form, sincere, first rate” particular person. Not solely did these perceived qualities fail to make him an interesting candidate, however they had been additionally typically held in opposition to him—handled as proof that he lacked a sure presidential mettle.
“I don’t like how Trump was simply in your face with all the things, however Pence is sort of too far within the different route,” one participant named Judith mentioned.
Maybe these voters had been figuring out a easy lack of charisma. However their informal dismissal of Pence’s healthful, God-fearing, family-man persona is emblematic of a sea change in conservative politics—and an enormous miscalculation by Pence himself.
When Pence was added to the ticket in 2016, his chief operate was to vouch for Trump with mainstream Republicans, particularly conservative Christian voters. Pence’s popularity as a religious evangelical gave him a sure ethical credibility when he defended Trump amid scandal and outrage. He carried out this process exceptionally nicely. These adoring eyes, these fawning tributes, that slightly weird fixation on the breadth of his boss’s shoulders—no one was higher at taking part in the loyalist. And for a sure form of voter, Pence’s loyalty supplied assurance that Trump was worthy of continued help.
Pence had his personal motives, as I reported in my profile. All of this vouching for Trump was supposed to purchase Pence goodwill with the bottom and set him up for a future presidential run. For a lot of in Pence’s camp, the challenge took on a spiritual dimension. “For those who’re Mike Pence, and also you imagine what he believes, you understand God had a plan,” Ralph Reed, an evangelical energy dealer, instructed me again then.
However in making a permission structure for voters to excuse Trump’s faulty character and flouting of non secular values, Pence was unwittingly making himself irrelevant. In impact, he spent 4 years convincing conservative Christian voters that the very factor he needed to supply them didn’t matter.
In 2011, a ballot by the Public Faith Analysis Institute discovered that solely 30 p.c of white evangelicals believed “an elected official who commits an immoral act of their private life can nonetheless behave ethically and fulfill their duties of their public {and professional} life.” By 2020, that quantity had risen to 68 p.c.
Pence gained the argument. Now he’s reaping the whirlwind.
In one of many focus teams, a religious Christian named Angie was requested how a lot she factored in ethical rectitude when assessing a presidential candidate. “I attempt to use my religion to decide on somebody by character, however it hasn’t all the time been attainable,” she mentioned. Generally she needed to vote for a candidate who shared her politics however didn’t reside her values.
“Who involves thoughts?” the moderator requested.
“I feel Trump falls into that class,” Angie conceded. “However fairly actually, the overwhelming majority of others do as nicely.” She paused. “I might say Pence truly doesn’t fall into that class. I might say his character most likely aligns with biblical values pretty nicely.”
However Angie remained tired of seeing Pence within the Oval Workplace. If he had a file to run on, she wasn’t conscious of it.
“Something he did bought overshadowed by all of the drama of those final 4 years,” she mentioned, hastening so as to add, “Looks like a superbly good man.”
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