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Inversion on the second, as the primary rises, as chance of June 1 default rises.
Determine 1: 1 month Treasury – Fed funds unfold (blue), and three month – 1 month Treasury unfold (tan), each in %. Supply: Treasury and Fed through FRED, and creator’s calculations.
I interpret the rise in 1 month to Fed funds unfold as a sign of danger related to default.
For CDS spreads, see this post.
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