I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
I introduce a survey of financial expectations shaped by querying a big language mannequin (LLM)’s expectations of assorted monetary and macroeconomic variables primarily based on a pattern of reports articles from the Wall Road Journal between 1984 and 2021. I discover the ensuing expectations intently match present surveys together with the Survey of Skilled Forecasters (SPF), the American Affiliation of Particular person Buyers, and the Duke CFO Survey. Importantly, I doc that LLM primarily based expectations match most of the deviations from full-information rational expectations exhibited in these present survey sequence. The LLM’s macroeconomic expectations exhibit under-reaction generally present in consensus SPF forecasts. Moreover, its return expectations are extrapolative, disconnected from goal measures of anticipated returns, and negatively correlated with future realized returns. Lastly, utilizing a pattern of articles outdoors of the LLM’s coaching interval I discover that the correlation with present survey measures persists – indicating these outcomes don’t mirror memorization however generalization on the a part of the LLM. My outcomes present proof for the potential of LLMs to assist us higher perceive human beliefs and navigate potential fashions of nonrational expectations.
That’s from a new paper by J. Leland Bybee, by way of Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham.
