I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
I used to be requested about my guess for the recession’s begin. I stated consensus was for 2nd or third quarter this 12 months, about 6 months from now. Then I questioned a bit. In accordance with Miller (2019) (dialogue here), the best AUROC at 6 month horizon is the 5 year-Fed Funds fee unfold. What does this unfold point out?
Determine 1: 5 12 months Treasury-Fed funds unfold, % (blue, left scale), and estimated chance of recession 6 months forward (tan, proper scale). Supply: Federal Reserve by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations.
So, for October 2023, the chance is about 60% utilizing a probit mannequin (pseudo-R2 = 0.16).
What about within the subsequent few months, together with Q1 and Q2? The Q1 advance can be out tomorrow; GDPNow for Q1 as of at present is 1.1% q/q SAAR. S&P World Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monitoring as of at present is at 1% and 0% for Q1 and Q2 respectively. After all, as has been totally mentioned, NBER doesn’t make a willpower concerning enterprise cycle dates on the premise of GDP alone (CEA (2022); Frankel (2022); discussion of CBO (2022); post).
The current (April) WSJ survey locations the chance of a recession inside the subsequent 12 months at 61%, not removed from what a plain vanilla probit on 3m10s time period unfold implies.
Determine 2: Estimated chance of recession inside 12 months forward primarily based on 10yr-3mo unfold (blue), and median from WSJ surveys. Supply: WSJ surveys, creator’s calculations.
After all, the subjective chance from the WSJ survey has been at that stage since October of 2022. So, maybe This autumn is just not a foul guess.
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