Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
Slight bump up in March/April expectations, however nonetheless down relative to mid-2022.
Determine 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median anticipated from Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue +), median anticipated from Michigan Survey of Shoppers (pink), median from NY Fed Survey of Client Expectations (mild inexperienced), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), SoFIE imply from Coibion-Gorodnichenko agency expectations survey [light blue squares], all in %. Michigan March remark is preliminary. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, College of Michigan by way of FRED and Investing.com, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed and Coibion and Gorodnichenko, and NBER.
The information are right here (XLSX).
The patron surveys (Michigan, NY Fed) recommend a barely uptick. That is additionally mirrored in economists’ views, at the least as represented by the WSJ April survey.
Supply: WSJ, 15 April 2023.
Notice that June ’24 is about as shut as one can get to March 2024 (which corresponds to the to the final Michigan and NY Fed surveys). There’s a 16 bps improve in y/y anticipated inflation via June 2024, going from the January to April surveys.
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